Sam here.
It’s revenue forecasting season.
Too many times, I see revenue forecasts with unchecked optimism and not enough data – inputs from external marketing agencies, new software promising “big lifts”, and the lizard brain need to “beat last year”.
With an uncertain macro environment and the end of ecommerce easy mode, the bar is higher.
So this year we’re publishing a Revenue Planning Guide to provide operators sober, data driven context.
You’ll find our perspective across key macroeconomic indicators, Shopify GMV trends, and Ecom CFO’s own same-store revenue benchmarks into a single view of what the environment actually looks like heading into 2026.
The goal isn’t precision – it’s grounding and perspective. A way to sanity-check your assumptions against the realities of the current market.
Our Outlook for Revenue Forecasting
I see mostly yellow looking at the big macroeconomic forces impacting the consumer, Shopify’s GMV’s reports, and our own published client benchmark reports.
Take your time with the table below.
My 3 core beliefs about the macroeconomic climate and DTC revenue forecasting for this year:
- Don’t forecast >10% revenue without a step-change growth lever
- US consumers have a low market perception and medium ability to buy
- Faster fed rate cuts would change my opinion to the upside
Step-change growth levers are hero product launches, new channels, new geographies, new brands, and acquiring new businesses.
Revenue growth >10% will not come from better execution and squeezing efficiency out of the same underlying business – “doing what we did last year, but better”.
Want the full breakdown?
I walk through the data and insights behind this outlook scorecard in the complete report—including the macro indicators we’re tracking, what Shopify’s numbers are telling us, and where our client benchmarks landed.
And if you have an audience of ecom founders, and you’d like us to come do a detailed breakdown for them (e.g., blog post, podcast interview, newsletter write-up, etc.) hit reply and let me know.
— Sam
